Business customers often ask why electric vehicle availability and pricing move around so much from one quarter to the next, and why a model that was hard to get in spring is suddenly being pushed hard in autumn. Most of the answer is a piece of regulation called the Zero Emission Vehicle mandate. It is worth understanding, because it is currently under review and the outcome will shape the next few years of vehicle choice.
What the mandate requires
The ZEV mandate sets the share of each manufacturer's new UK registrations that must be zero emission. The targets are set in law and rise every year.
| Year | Cars | Vans |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22% | 10% |
| 2025 | 28% | 16% |
| 2026 (now) | 33% | 24% |
| 2027 | 38% | 34% |
| 2028 | 52% | 46% |
| 2029 | 66% | 58% |
| 2030 | 80% | 70% |
Targets beyond 2030 have not been written into law. The stated ambition is for all new cars and vans to be zero emission by 2035, but the trajectory to get there is indicative only at this stage.
The gap between target and reality
Through August 2026, battery electric cars accounted for 25.62 per cent of new UK car registrations, against a 33 per cent target for the year. In August alone the figure was 29.8 per cent. Vans are further behind: 11.0 per cent year to date against a 24 per cent target, with a record 16.3 per cent in August.
Where a manufacturer cannot cover its position, the shortfall carries a payment of 12,000 pounds per car and 15,000 pounds per van. That figure only bites after the available flexibilities have been used, which matters, because the flexibilities are substantial: manufacturers can borrow against future years, convert unused CO2 performance into ZEV credits, and since January 2026 transfer entitlement between their car and van fleets.
What that does to the vehicles you can actually get
The practical effect is a market where manufacturers have a strong regulatory reason to move electric vehicles, and much less reason to push petrol and diesel. For a business customer that shows up in several ways.
- Electric supply is prioritised. Allocation, build slots and stock tend to favour zero emission models, particularly late in a compliance year.
- Support comes and goes in waves. Manufacturer support on electric models tends to intensify when a brand is behind its own position and ease when it is comfortable. It is driven by compliance, not by the calendar.
- Petrol and diesel choice narrows. Every non-ZEV registration uses up headroom, so combustion ranges get trimmed and lead times on them can lengthen.
- Vans are the tighter market. With the van gap far wider than the car gap, electric van supply and support behave quite differently from cars. If you run vans, this is worth a conversation rather than an assumption.
This is the part Intelligent Vehicle Finance spends most time on with customers: not what the regulation says, but which specific models are genuinely available on the timescale a business needs.
The rules are being reviewed right now
The Government opened a review of the mandate on 14 August 2026, and it closes on 23 October 2026. It is consulting on lower trajectories to 2030, including options at 70, 60 and 50 per cent for cars, and 60, 50 and 40 per cent for vans.
The Government has been explicit that the destination is not changing: the commitment to end the sale of new purely petrol and diesel cars by 2030, and for all new cars and vans to be zero emission by 2035, stands. Hybrids and plug-in hybrids will be permitted between 2030 and 2035. Mild hybrids will not, because they cannot drive on electric power alone.
Until that review reports, the 33 per cent and 24 per cent targets above remain the law. If you are planning vehicle replacement into 2027 and 2028, it is worth revisiting once the outcome is published.
What to do with this
If you are choosing between an electric and a combustion vehicle for a business, the regulation is one input among several, alongside the tax position, your charging access and your actual mileage pattern. The one thing worth avoiding is assuming that what was available and well supported last year will be the same this year.
Call the team on 01752 429950 or request a callback and we will tell you what is realistically obtainable for your timescale. You can also browse electric car leasing, van leasing and business car leasing, or read our leasing guides.
Targets from the Vehicle Emissions Trading Schemes Order 2023 as amended. Registration figures from SMMT, January to August 2026. Review details from the Department for Transport ZEV mandate review, August 2026. Figures are correct at the date of publication and the review may change the trajectory.
Intelligent Vehicle Finance is a credit broker, not a lender, and receives a commission from the lender or funder when an agreement completes. A trading style of XLCR Vehicle Management Ltd, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN 315268). Subject to status and availability.
Reviewed by Stacey Smith, Brand Director, Intelligent Vehicle Finance. Last updated: September 2026.